In the 'Gray Zone:' Russia, China Use Low Key Tactics to Scare Off Allies of Ukraine, Taiwan

A test of whether subterfuge and coerce succeed warding off military opposition from the US and allies.

Almost in tandem, Russia and China have expanded their hostilities with Taiwan and Ukraine, respectively, to allies of each.

Russia sent fighter aircraft into the territory of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which is supplying weapons and intelligence to help Ukraine fend off Russia’s full-scale invasion.

At sea and in the sky, China is moving to tighten its grip in areas around Taiwan, the self-governing island China claims as its own, with low-intensity intimidation.

The incidents have become frequent in recent weeks and fall under the category of “gray zone” activity, in which countries take action against perceived enemies because the low-intensity attacks are unlikely to attract military retaliation.

Both Beijing and Moscow have entered the gray zone for years. Russia employed methods even before its 2014 invasion of Ukraine and again during the full-scale one that began in 2022.

Those tactics include military aircraft overflights around Western Europe, cyberattacks on NATO allied countries, sabotage of infrastructure, damage to undersea communication cables, interference with electronic navigation tools, misinformation campaigns and financing activities of pro-Kremlin politicians abroad.

China’s menu is similar, though much of it doubles as rehearsals for a possible invasion or blockade of Taiwan.

On Saturday, Poland scrambled fighter jets in response to a massive Russian bombardment of Ukraine, some of which occurred close to the Polish border.

The day before, three Russian fighter jets flew over Estonia, a former Soviet republic that joined NATO after it gained independence. NATO jets scrambled and the Russian MIG-31 jets retired.

In early September, drones launched from Russia were shot down by NATO forces over Poland and Romania. The drones were apparently unarmed and did no damage. Russia said the air vehicles had gone inadvertently astray.

Observers’ theories suggest that Russia’s air intrusions are distractions from the slow pace of its efforts to conquer Ukraine on the ground.

Russia is trying to compensate for its “faltering position in Ukraine, as the invasion has come at a high cost and few territorial gains,” wrote the American Security Project, an American research institute.

The Kremlin “may be employing sub-threshold tactics to project strength, aiming to deter outside powers from fully understanding its vulnerabilities,” the ASP journal added.

The Canadian Security Intelligence Service, a government agency, said, “Russian grey zone tactics are principally intended to support Russia’s view of its place as a great power.

“Russia has many options for aggressively challenging countries attempting to counter its agenda, and its long experience in deception and denial has led to material gains in geopolitical influence.”

Moscow denied that its jets flew into Estonian airspace. The flights were in “strict compliance with international airspace regulations,” the Kremlin asserted.

Meanwhile, in the Taiwan Strait, Chinese jets buzzed warships from Australia and Canada that were navigating the waterway. Western naval vessels have made periodic transits through the strait to demonstrate it is an open route under international law.

Chinese officials called the ships’ passage “troublemaking and [a] provocation.” Canadian and Australian officials indicated they would continue to traverse the strait to “uphold international law.”

On September 12, China said it deployed naval and air forces to monitor a pair of US and British warships sailing through the strait. The pair of ships “provoked trouble” in its coastal waters, a Chinese military spokesperson said.

Major Jason Welch, a spokesman for the US Indo-Pacific Command, responded that a US missile destroyer and a British frigate conducted a “routine Taiwan Strait transit” that was “in accordance with international law.”

In early August, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel crashed into a People’s Liberation Army Navy vessel as both were trying to scare off a Philippine supply ship trying to reach a group of Filipino fishermen near reefs known as the Scarborough Shoal.

China claims the feature as within its sovereign domain and accused the Philippine vessel of having “illegally invaded China’s waters.”

Manila responded, saying the shoal “is a longstanding and integral part of the Philippines.” Under an international court ruling, the shoal belongs to the Philippines.

Military relations between Manila and the United States have tightened in recent years as China’s insistence on full control of the Taiwan Strait has grown louder and more frequent.

Beijing claims Scarborough Shoal as part of a “nine-dash line” mapping of the South and East China seas that Beijing says gives it ownership of the entire route between Taiwan and mainland China. The United States, Japan and the Philippines in August staged naval drills off the Scarborough Shoal.

A Chinese frigate tried to move close to the allied warships undertaking maneuvers, but a Philippine frigate warned it off by radio. “There was a time when they attempted to maneuver closer but, again, we challenged them,” Philippine naval Commander Irvin Ian Robles told reporters on board the BRP Jose Rizal frigate.

Isaac Kardon, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that “gray zone [activities] are recognizable and controversial elements of the People’s Republic of China’s strategy,” which began in the 2000s in the South China Sea and extended northward to the East China Sea in the 2010s.

Kardon describes the tactics as a kind of strategic ambiguity, Washington’s long-held policy of keeping China uncertain about what the US would do if Beijing decided to invade Taiwan.

“Most definitions of the gray zone key on the uncertain political and operational space between war and peace, Kardon wrote. He added that China’s gray zone actions “typically include some combination” of:

• People’s Republic maritime law enforcement vessels enforcing Chinese maritime law and implementing maritime and boundary policies.

• The People’s Liberation Army coordination with seaborne militia forces, civilian fishing fleets, marine scientific vessels and offshore oil and gas industrial assets, with PLA naval forces over the horizon.

The Rand Corporation, a US-based think tank, reported in 2022 that, “Chinese analysts characterize coercive or confrontational external-facing MOOTW as stability maintenance, rights protection, or security and guarding operations.”

The report said, “Chinese analysts characterize coercive or confrontational external-facing MOOTW as stability maintenance, rights protection, or security and guarding operations.”

China had informed the United Nations 13 years earlier of its claims to the South China Sea because it holds “undisputable sovereignty and jurisdiction over its islands and adjacent waters” and has the right “to install military and non-military facilities for the purpose of self-defense.”

The danger of both Russia’s and China’s gray zone activities lies in the possibility of incidents that could lead to combat.

US history, for instance, is sprinkled with seaborne disasters that led to war. The mysterious sinking of the USS Maine in Havana Harbor triggered a US intervention in what became the Spanish-American War.

The equally ambiguous attack on a US naval ship in the Gulf of Tonkin provoked Washington to vastly intensify its military intervention in Vietnam.

The self-inflicted crash of the Chinese Coast Guard ship off Scarbrouh Shoal was not enough to incite Chinese action against the Philippines. The question now is, what kind of incident would? Or is it just a question of when?