Trump Weakens Gaza Ceasefire He Set Up

Insistent breaches, Palestinian expulsion plan moot future steps to peace.

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip is slowly disintegrating with small-scale breaches in the battered coastal enclave.

Beyond the further devastation of the coastal enclave and its two million residents, the breakdown would jeopardize the three-step peace plan announced by US President Donald Trump. The ceasefire was designed to facilitate the freeing of dozens of Israeli hostages held in Gaza by Hamas in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israel.

These initial exchanges, which are currently underway, are meant to lead to full exchanges of captives beginning next month, a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, and then a permanent truce and talks to end the war entirely.

But the violence, though much reduced in comparison to the months of warfare that began on October 7, 2023, is alarming, said United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres. “We must avoid at all costs the resumption of hostilities in Gaza that would lead to an immense tragedy," Guterres warned on the social media platform X. "Both sides must fully abide by their commitments in the cease-fire agreement and resume serious negotiations."

The simmering violence in Gaza is not the only element threatening the ceasefire, observers contend. Trump himself undercut the process by proposing to skip the phase of making [eace with Palestinians in pace but rather to simply ferry the entire population of Gaza into Egypt and Jordan.

The US would then take control of the seaside territory and turn it into a resort destination. Washington pundits called it Mat-a-Gaza, a play on the name of his private Florida resort Mar-a-Lago

“The ceasefire has always been extremely fragile. It’s more so now,” said Girogio Calfiero, who heads Gulf State Analytics, a Washington-based consulting firm. “You have to question what is the motivation for continuing the ceasefire if the ultimate goal is a mass ethnic cleansing campaign, in which more than two million Palestinians are forced into Egypt and Jordan.”

“It gives us good reason to worry about the ceasefire,” he concluded.

Cairo and Amman rejected the idea, as did US allies, not to mention Hamas. Nevertheless, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is peddling the idea during a Middle East trip that began Tuesday.

On Wednesday, Arab countries “affirmed” their opposition to Trump’s Palestinian expulsion proposal. The United Arab Emirates, a wealthy oil states on the Persian Gulf, implied that Arab financial backing for reconstructing the battered Gaza Strip would depend on implementing the “two-state solution,” which is aimed at creating a sovereign Palestinian country in the West Bank and Gaza.

The UAE rejects “any attempts to displace the Palestinian people from their land,” President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan told Rubio. He then “underscored the importance of linking Gaza’s reconstruction to a path that leads to a comprehensive and lasting peace based on the two-state solution,” according to the government news agency WAM.

One key US ally looked favorably on the population transplant: Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu. He called it “bold” and said he hoped to work with Trump to make it happen. Rubio, who was standing with the Israeli leader during a joint press conference, said that Hamas “must be eradicated,” without explaining why therefore it should keep talking.

Despite Israel’s hawkish stand, US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, who is leading American diplomatic efforts, said talks on phase two of the current ceasefire plan are continuing this week.

In any event, the uptick of violence is an open mockery of the ceasefire. Last Sunday, an Israeli drone strike targeted and killed Hamas police while they were guarding humanitarian aid trucks near Gaza’s southern border with Egypt.

On Tuesday, Israeli news outlets published reports of soldiers using Palestinians as “human shields” by forcing them to walk ahead of soldiers on patrol in Gaza. Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur for the Palestinian areas, criticized the incident as “human shielding in action”.

A neighborhood ceasefire also seems in jeopardy. In Lebanon, where a truce mirrors the Gaza accord, is also beset by low-key fighting. The Shiite Muslim militia Hezbollah had launched rockets into Israel in support of Gaza prompting Israel to invade Lebanon.

This week, Israeli jets have bombarded sites in the across the south. Israeli officials say the action is designed to hit Hezbollah positions and arms depots. Israel has decided to keep soldiers on high ground in the south in contradiction to an agreement to have pulled out already.

Displaced Lebanese civilians are also forbidden from returning to evacuated area without Israel’s permission. Israeli forces shot dead an unarmed Lebanese woman this week who was trying to approach her home in the far south to see if it was damaged during the previous fighting.

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun demanded that Israel “abide by the ceasefire agreement, and withdraw on the specified date.” He called on peace mediators—diplomats from the United States and Qatar-- to “fulfill their responsibilities and assist us.”

The UN also then asked Israel to leave. “Another delay in this process is not what we hoped would happen,” read a statement by an official in charge of UN effort by the organization to keep peace in the south.

There is yet another ongoing conflict connected to the Gaza war though it is not covered by the teetering ceasefire: warfare in the West Bank. Israeli raids into rebellious Palestinian cities—notably the central towns of Tukaram, Jenin and Nablus—are ongoing. Low-intensity battles began in the West Bank two months before Hamas’ October 7 invasion of southern Israel.