Wheels Coming Off Iran's Axis of Resistance

Israel's wars on Gaza and Lebanon cripple Tehran's allies. Punishment for Iran next?

Since 1979, when Shiite Muslim clerics took power in Iran, the government and itss security apparatus built up armed militias in the Middle East that became a mainstay of Tehran’s anti-Israel coalition known as the Axis of Resistance.

In the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel by Hamas, the alliance has come under intense threat. Israel not only retaliated against Hamas in the now-devastated Gaza Strip, but also against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which took up the Palestinian cause by launching missiles into Israel on October 8.

After months of tit-for-tat aerial exchanges, the Israel stepped up their bombardments of south Lebanon and Beirut. It has moved three divisions of around 20,000 soldiers each plus armor, to the Lebanese front in preparation for a ground invasion.

Houthi rebels in Yemen, a relative newcomer to the Axis, harassed commercial shipping in the Red Sea in support of Hamas. In response, Israel, United States and British have launched drones and rockets attacks on Houthi military targets.

Iran itself entered the fray in April, two weeks after Israel killed, via missile strike, an Iranian Military Guard Commander who was visiting Damascus. After months trying to stay on the sidelines, Iran tried to strike back by launching about 300 ineffective missiles into Israel.

But more was to come. On Oct. 1, Iran hit Israel with 180 rockets in response to the July assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ top leader while he was visiting, and of Hezbollah chieftain Hassan Nasrallah, killed in late September by a barrage of Israeli missiles fired into Beirut. Both were struck down by missiles sent from afar.

A hesitant Iran feared that it had to answer both attacks. Otherwise, alliance wheels risked coming off the axis, observers said. “Simply put, Iran may have calculated that failing to respond would eventually lead its allied militias to question their loyalty and commitment, especially if they perceived that Tehran was unwilling to take the same risks they were,” wrote Arman Mahmoudian, a global security researcher and Middle East expert at the University of South Florida.

Nicolas Grajewski, a researcher at Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy  concurred. “Restraint threatened to erode Iran’s credibility among its allies,” he said.

Concern over the possible loss of its regional alliances also prompted Iran to consider a further deterrent option if Israeli strikes continue, as they likely will: complete development of its nuclear arms program. “Iran may increasingly view its nuclear potential as a critical component of its broader security strategy,” Grajewski said.

Iran’s security framework relies on sub-nuclear resources. One is the capability of projecting military power beyond its borders through allied proxies, especially Hezbollah, but also Hamas and the Houthis, along with guerrillas in Iraq (to raid US forces) and in Syria. In military terms, this array of allies provided Iran with “forward defense” that allowed it to confront Israel without directly engaging with its own forces.

The other tool is the threat to Israel posed by Iran’s armed missile and drone arsenal that could reach deep inside Israel. The failure of both tools to deter Israel’s onslaught alarmed the Iranian government and outraged its domestic critics.

In an apparent effort to calm fears of all-out war, the government announced it had no plan to send Iranian ground forces to help either Hamas or Hezbollah. “There is no need to send extra or volunteer forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” said Nasser Kanaani, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Kanaani said. Both allies “have the capability and strength to defend themselves against the aggression.”

Iran may have delayed unleashing it missiles for several days by calming words from Biden. American press reports said he  advised Iran to make a measured response to Israel’s attacks because he and French President Michel Macron had devised a two-week ceasefire plan that would defuse the war in Lebanon.

Netanyahu rejected the truce proposal.

Meanwhile, President Masoud Pezeshkian came under verbal fire for ostensible prioritizing diplomacy with the US over care for Iran’s allies. Israel’s assassination of Haniyeh took place while he was visiting Tehran to celebrate Pezeshkian’s presidential inauguration.

“Iran's delay in responding to the assassination of martyr Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, while the world was waiting for Iran's response, made the Zionist regime dare to assassinate Sayed Hassan Nasrallah as well,” conservative politician Ali Motahari wrote on X (formerly Twitter).

“We were tricked by America, which repeatedly sent messages saying that it will establish a ceasefire.”

The Iranian government seems intent on presenting itself as an innocent bystander in Middle East turmoil. In a letter to the United Nations, Iran’s diplomatic envoys in New York  described their country’s retaliation as a "legal, rational, and legitimate response” to Israel’s “terrorist acts.

However, the note added, if Israel struck again, "A subsequent and crushing response will ensue."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unmoved either by any sign of Iranian moderation or threats. More attacks are on the way. “Iran made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it," he said in a video appearance the day after Iran’s Oct. 1 attack. "The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies. They will understand.”

Possible targets include Iran’s oil industry and nuclear facilities—the latter being key to the potential development of atomic weapons.

Attacks on both present politically problems of for Biden.

Last weekend, Biden said he talks with Netanyahu about military targeting. He said they discussed whether Israel should cripple oil facilities. But when he spoke to media outlets on about his thoughts, he waffled. In response to a reporter’s question, he said, “I think that would be a little…Anyway.”

The nuclear issue also presents a quandary. Biden inherited the frustration of President Barak Obama, who nuclear control deal with Iran was canceled by Obama’s successor Donald Trump. It is difficult during this American election season for Biden, who on the one hand blames Iran for Middle East turmoil, to then inhibit Israel from keeping atomic bombs out of Iranian hands.

Instead of speaking directly, Biden shuffled the issue to anonymous spokesmen. Those officials, speaking beneath a cloak of anonymity, said Biden advised Netanyahu to take a “measured approach” short of destroying nuclear facilities.

Trump, who is running to replace Biden in the November 5 polls, seized on Biden’s hesitation as a sign of weakness. Iran’s nuclear facilities should be a target, he said on Sunday “Isn't that what you're supposed to hit?" Trump asked. "Hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later."

Vice President Kamala Harris, who was chosen to replace Biden by his own Democratic Party because he was seen as doddering, addressed the issue during a television interview aired on Sunday. “What we need to do to ensure that Iran never achieves the ability to be a nuclear power. That is one of my highest priorities,” she said.

She didn’t indicate what the US ---or Israel-- should do “ensure” that outcome. "I'm not going to talk about hypotheticals at this moment," she said.